Latest polls spark Lib Dem optimism

12.00.00am BST (GMT +0100) Fri 7th May 2004

The latest opinion polls show the Liberal Democrats in a strong position in the run-up to the Euro Elections on Thursday 10th June.

The latest ICM/Guardian poll shows the Liberal Democrats attracting 22% of the vote. This is up an impressive four points since the 2001 General Election and marks the party's best sustained showing for around a decade.

Labour's share of the vote has dropped sharply since the 2001 General Election, but half a year on and Michael Howard has done little revive Tory fortunes. Their 33% share of the vote has barely moved since the last General Election... or indeed, in the last ten years!

A number of recent reports have shown how particular groups of voters are deserting Labour and supporting the Liberal Democrats instead.

A Fawcett Society report into voting patterns amongst women has shown that both Labour and the Conservatives are losing support to the Liberal Democrats. In particular, the Tories are losing support from middle-aged women while women aged over 55 are turning away from Labour to the Liberal Democrats.

Meanwhile, a recent MORI poll has shown that the Liberal Democrats have leap-frogged Labour as the most popular party amongst students. 37% of students now say that they intend to vote Lib Dem, compared to 28% supporting Labour and just 20% for the Tories. Labour support amongst students has plummeted from 42% when the same survey was undertaken two years ago.

Similarly, an ICM/Guardian poll has showed a dramatic drop in support amongst British Muslims. 75% had voted Labour at the 2001 General Election, but just half had remained loyal. Many of the remainder had switched their allegiance to the Liberal Democrats, who now enjoy 36% of the Muslim vote.

Stephen Williams, prospective Lib Dem MP for Bristol West, is looking forward to the Euro Elections on Thursday 10th June : "We could not be in a better position in the run up to these elections. With our principled stand on Iraq, new ideas for taxation and our commitment to public services and the environment, we are winning public support from all sectors of the community."

"We have to be hopeful of picking up at least one - and maybe even two - seats in the Euro Elections. The Labour vote is in meltdown and the Tories are going nowhere. Only the Lib Dems are showing positive movement."

"An earlier ICM/Guardian report into marginal seats suggested there was a 8.5% swing from Labour to the Lib Dems. This is twice what we need to snatch Bristol West from serial-abstainer Valerie Davey."

Related Links:

Fawcett Society report into voting patterns amongst women.

Recent MORI student poll.

ICM/Guardian poll on support amongst British Muslims.

ICM/Guardian report into marginal seats.